Tennis · resolved market
ITF Brisbane: Natsuki Yoshimoto vs Lily Taylor
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35faa7b266775ab9676edfa1d3dd32be2186ea66eae5eb22c18e2dd1f0cabfa0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natsuki Yoshimotoof Natsuki Yoshimoto, Lily Taylor
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 75c | 25,135$18,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,290.58 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Lily Taylor | 26c | 19,134$5,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,067.74 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Lily Taylor | 22c | 3,478$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.27 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ab…ee2bbacked Lily Taylor | 22c | 1,193$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfb…84a6backed Lily Taylor | 29c | 803.09$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.63 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Lily Taylor | 24c | 558.69$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.25 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Lily Taylor | 24c | 534.36$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.38 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07b…b7c9backed Lily Taylor | 29c | 475.86$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 154 | 56.5%87 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc38…bb0ebacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 72c | 388.07$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.85 | 193 | 49.7%96 W · 97 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 78c | 357.36$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.99 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc28f…d02bbacked Lily Taylor | 28c | 331.4$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.12 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 71c | 320.49$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.08 | 254 | 33.5%85 W · 169 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 76c | 306.92$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 921 | 45.2%416 W · 505 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Lily Taylor | 17c | 300$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 416 | 44.5%185 W · 231 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Lily Taylor | 16c | 215.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Lily Taylor | 20c | 213.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Lily Taylor | 7c | 202.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Lily Taylor | 23c | 199.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 796 | 46%366 W · 430 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Lily Taylor | 32c | 163.06$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 1,125 | 51.1%575 W · 550 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Lily Taylor | 22c | 162$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 275 | 50.2%138 W · 137 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…206abacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 76c | 157.09$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -7.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb71e…641abacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 73c | 120$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 337 | 51.9%175 W · 162 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Lily Taylor | 22c | 109.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 551 | 49.7%274 W · 277 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Lily Taylor | 23c | 104.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 78c | 102.06$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +19.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Lily Taylor | 31c | 83.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 279 | 43.4%121 W · 158 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…d4a0backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa11…650bbacked Lily Taylor | 27c | 75.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Lily Taylor | 31c | 74.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 1,023 | 41.3%422 W · 601 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Lily Taylor | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 449 | 52.8%237 W · 212 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Lily Taylor | 30c | 74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…ef05backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 71c | 68.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 372 | 62.9%234 W · 138 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4110…0b93backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 70c | 64.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 79c | 63.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 363 | 78.2%284 W · 79 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 77cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…400bbacked Lily Taylor | 32c | 61.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 346 | 27.7%96 W · 250 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95d…d369backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 74c | 57.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0677…2a28backed Lily Taylor | 38c | 53.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | -11.3wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Lily Taylor | 22c | 52.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 349 | 57.9%202 W · 147 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d79…9e95backed Lily Taylor | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Lily Taylor | 21c | 47.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 652 | 59.4%387 W · 265 L | +31.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 66c | 43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 69c | 42.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4880…5626backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 74c | 37.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 244 | 60.2%147 W · 97 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…2c2cbacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 80c | 23.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 108 | 29.6%32 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 76c | 21.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1039…2914backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 70c | 21.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 287 | 64.1%184 W · 103 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 821 | 59.4%488 W · 333 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f89…434cbacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 71c | 18.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e20…5cf9backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 75c | 18.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 355 | 55.5%197 W · 158 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…371dbacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 66c | 18.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58cc…6415backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…ed0dbacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 324 | 52.5%170 W · 154 L | -15.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 68c | 14.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62f…1781backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 73c | 14.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 266 | 64.7%172 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.