Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C or below on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3629df9cbc11566b2c9c897f67c8f0e163c7f82174c8b6168e77542862abeee5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 48c | 793.49$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed No | 78c | 384.36$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 55c | 346.62$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.62 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 30c | 299.96$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.48 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 63c | 201.72$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.93 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked No | 75c | 174.47$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 36c | 161.94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.41 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 19c | 151.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.58 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 150.67$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 76c | 150.07$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.5 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb5…97d1backed Yes | 41c | 139.92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6961…511bbacked Yes | 78c | 138.86$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 40c | 130$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 9c | 126.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 14c | 124.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 17c | 118.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.86 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c0…1a74backed Yes | 24c | 117$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.04 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…01babacked No | 70c | 113$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.45 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed No | 76c | 103.87$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.09 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 32c | 103.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…6bd8backed Yes | 35c | 101.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 23c | 100.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.72 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 73c | 92$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb3…7e93backed No | 63c | 89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 32c | 85.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.03 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 20c | 82.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.49 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…712bbacked No | 61c | 82.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked Yes | 38c | 81.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 62c | 80.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…5ce4backed No | 63c | 78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 48c | 74.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 46c | 69.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked Yes | 31c | 65.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 62c | 64.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 64.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 63.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 46c | 62.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 46c | 61.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 46c | 55.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 38c | 55.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 20c | 52.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37be…5a65backed No | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 37c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 46c | 49.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 48.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf6…24f9backed Yes | 24c | 48.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47cf…5732backed No | 62c | 48.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 51c | 43.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 51c | 37.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 68c | 37.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 62c | 33.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed No | 60c | 32.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 52c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 56c | 28.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 60c | 26.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 55c | 25.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…1c40backed Yes | 41c | 24.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 66c | 23.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…0009backed No | 68c | 23.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 66c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…a323backed No | 65c | 21.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf66…584cbacked No | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 74c | 18.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b2…1decbacked No | 60c | 17.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 58c | 17.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 73c | 16.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C or below on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.