Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e70425a6b6f0c77cb419ab15834c87d90e7c71e0c8b6b408491259d173445ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 190.61$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 167.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 21c | 148.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 130$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed Yes | 47c | 122.72$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 63c | 118.56$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 79c | 109.62$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c0…1a74backed Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 31c | 97.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 92.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 85.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 81.43$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 64c | 74.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 69.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 52c | 68.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 51c | 66.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 76c | 65.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 63c | 57.87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ed…0d9abacked Yes | 35c | 57.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 57.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 36c | 55.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c000backed Yes | 37c | 54.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked Yes | 29c | 53.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 77c | 49.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 76c | 48.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 22c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 58c | 43.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 41.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 39.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 56c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 57c | 35.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 32c | 35.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…45d5backed Yes | 41c | 30.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 44c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 71c | 27.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 57c | 25.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…cb91backed No | 76c | 22.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 59c | 21.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…5ce4backed Yes | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc9…dba2backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 75c | 17.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C or below on May 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.