Champions League · resolved market
Will Fenerbahçe vs. Benfica end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36325ee508c57e31f1e8b52a3d66f0d3a65bd13e4eddd71d045498beac93ac5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 30c | 8,186$2,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,466.59 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Yes | 75c | 6,114$4,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,539.4 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fba…bdbdbacked Yes | 59c | 1,720$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.34 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 30c | 1,319$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.34 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 72c | 896.21$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.27 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee94…2ad7backed Yes | 67c | 592.63$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Yes | 28c | 493.33$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.2 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 28c | 436.79$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.49 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 72c | 267.86$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.86 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Yes | 34c | 250$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed No | 72c | 250$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 23c | 244.57$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3606…9bd2backed Yes | 29c | 176.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +165.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95de…42d5backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x344d…1278backed Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 42c | 102.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368f…03a8backed Yes | 78c | 78.21$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 59c | 69.49$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0557…4058backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3095…8e0ebacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…6c2ebacked Yes | 35c | 41.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d07…35e6backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba4…7dedbacked Yes | 27c | 37.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61bf…647ebacked No | 70c | 33.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…6579backed Yes | 41c | 32.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd4…e888backed No | 60c | 18.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fenerbahçe vs. Benfica end in a draw?this page
- Will Benfica win on 2025-08-20?No won
- Will Fenerbahçe win on 2025-08-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.