Champions League · resolved market
Will Benfica win on 2025-08-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf286184dbcdfeef40e1f278a6a7db02ea9abcd6b1b0d1e51a18b5c8ec00a675
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x61bf…647ebacked No | 60c | 16,448$9,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,603.36 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Yes | 40c | 14,048$5,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,619.15 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Yes | 13c | 6,386$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.93 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…f6d7backed No | 63c | 1,864$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ca…faa7backed Yes | 42c | 1,395$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 43c | 1,344$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.88 | 152 | 50.7%77 W · 75 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76cc…5e4ebacked No | 60c | 1,059$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Yes | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed No | 60c | 999.99$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.99 | 142 | 35.2%50 W · 92 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 75c | 992.78$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.14 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked No | 61c | 824.56$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.58 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 41c | 813.1$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.43 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 78c | 784.19$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.74 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb8…536fbacked Yes | 27c | 662.22$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Yes | 38c | 507.78$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.53 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa7…9a4dbacked Yes | 39c | 505.1$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed No | 60c | 502.55$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 37c | 395.44$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.99 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Yes | 39c | 384.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 40c | 375$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…f7debacked Yes | 36c | 318.19$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.86 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a75…ed14backed Yes | 40c | 311.79$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…bedfbacked Yes | 40c | 303.88$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe483…b5a0backed Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c91…0cefbacked Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed No | 60c | 249.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.99 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…986abacked Yes | 38c | 218.21$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.8 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -14.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Yes | 38c | 160$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x344d…1278backed Yes | 39c | 148.72$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Yes | 31c | 136.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 36c | 135.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…e316backed Yes | 38c | 130$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6695…6f1abacked Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dee…a0f4backed Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…ddd7backed Yes | 17c | 104.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…2dbcbacked Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3405…3e36backed Yes | 41c | 99.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Yes | 40c | 91.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…6c2ebacked Yes | 27c | 90.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Yes | 40c | 79.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 40c | 78.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…c5f2backed No | 62c | 75.81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3482…042cbacked Yes | 40c | 69.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d7…14fbbacked Yes | 41c | 64.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb11…3136backed Yes | 40c | 64.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218d…25b3backed Yes | 40c | 61.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked No | 62c | 55.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 39c | 53.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66a…229fbacked Yes | 39c | 51.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d6…d33cbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…6ab0backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf566…bbb9backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +105%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…e0ebbacked No | 61c | 45.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4736…9f44backed No | 61c | 44.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e4…60b3backed Yes | 40c | 42.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52c4…bee5backed No | 61c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33d9…cbe4backed No | 61c | 41.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…3b42backed No | 61c | 41.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b70…548fbacked No | 61c | 40.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec0…14babacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee5…ca6bbacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4db0…e467backed Yes | 39c | 38.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +153.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…4189backed Yes | 40c | 36.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71a7…9266backed Yes | 39c | 35.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32f…4f6cbacked Yes | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…4955backed Yes | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fb…2b2abacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…0701backed No | 61c | 22.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…1e55backed No | 61c | 19.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Benfica win on 2025-08-20?this page
- Will Fenerbahçe vs. Benfica end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Fenerbahçe win on 2025-08-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.