Champions League · resolved market
Will Fenerbahçe win on 2025-08-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc18b13da314f8a4a0f4aa4da41fa3096b69e9290a8cd213b317c1c9cf3f1eea4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked No | 69c | 13,240$9,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,106.8 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61bf…647ebacked Yes | 31c | 11,956$3,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,706.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 67c | 4,161$2,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,383.17 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 33c | 3,333$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.89 | 210 | 37.1%78 W · 132 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…f91ebacked Yes | 28c | 2,847$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75a1…693fbacked No | 69c | 2,500$1,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 34c | 1,550$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 72c | 1,499$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.35 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 34c | 1,405$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.01 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 64c | 1,194$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.99 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76cc…5e4ebacked Yes | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 72c | 713.09$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.44 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 67c | 455.35$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.27 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 63c | 425.16$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.19 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed No | 71c | 352.11$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.11 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 66c | 329.61$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.88 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed No | 62c | 264.53$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.52 | 142 | 35.2%50 W · 92 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…f9a6backed Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c91…0cefbacked Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Yes | 36c | 250.02$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.01 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 34c | 250$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 220 | 54.1%119 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…a286backed Yes | 32c | 250$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed No | 67c | 234.5$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.39 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Yes | 35c | 232.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.23 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…a0e7backed Yes | 34c | 205.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 73c | 193.57$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.55 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9be…27bcbacked Yes | 27c | 165$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…b560backed Yes | 28c | 140.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa025…1607backed Yes | 30c | 117.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…f6d7backed Yes | 36c | 107.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 173 | 22%38 W · 135 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3095…8e0ebacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…7b9abacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed No | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Yes | 33c | 92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes | 34c | 90.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Yes | 34c | 80.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…6c2ebacked Yes | 30c | 80.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 34c | 76.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 264 | 43.9%116 W · 148 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb8…536fbacked Yes | 27c | 63.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0557…4058backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a2…1e8abacked Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2f…2f32backed Yes | 30c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d9…da5ebacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba4…7dedbacked No | 66c | 30.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 60c | 27.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…4a31backed No | 63c | 26.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 72c | 22.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…fe26backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 74cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48dc…8c54backed No | 74c | 16.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd4…e888backed No | 75c | 15.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fenerbahçe win on 2025-08-20?this page
- Will Benfica win on 2025-08-20?No won
- Will Fenerbahçe vs. Benfica end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.