MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3638bc15272b45fe0d5e32da7d027558b61b975b3c2ba2639ebe7422b418b012
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 49c | 3,697$1,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,795.35 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 54c | 3,455$1,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,605.69 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 2,116$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.93 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 2,101$1,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.49 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Milwaukee Brewers | 19c | 479$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.37 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 427.55$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.08 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 299.24$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.95 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Milwaukee Brewers | 52c | 298.08$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.08 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Milwaukee Brewers | 50c | 161.34$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.2 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 107.15$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 78.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 58.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 50.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Milwaukee Brewers | 55c | 37.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 34.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…62bebacked Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 22.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 21.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 20.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…d2f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.