MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb90227e48ce0b8b87e325a6ba968d5a02f74fc984ed040fef7dc8038d8a95857
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 67c | 8,095$5,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,671.19 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 33c | 6,618$2,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,185.36 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Over | 49c | 2,137$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.92 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 51c | 2,006$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.09 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 51c | 1,561$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.1 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 51c | 1,410$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 49c | 1,316$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.66 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 33c | 888.71$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.45 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 657.95$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.38 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 605.85$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.93 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 50c | 435.72$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.86 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 50c | 420$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 52c | 310.53$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf0…fdbebacked Over | 75c | 270.23$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.78 | 82 | 64.6%53 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Over | 52c | 252.77$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.33 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 49c | 248$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.48 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 48c | 113.41$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 61.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b07…5f54backed Under | 48c | 58.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Over | 51c | 51.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 229 | 48%110 W · 119 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 50c | 49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 46c | 47.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Under | 33c | 45.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 49c | 44.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 49c | 40.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…2b55backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 234 | 55.1%129 W · 105 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3255…ffb9backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Over | 49c | 35.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 43c | 35.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…2deebacked Under | 50c | 29.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 179 | 52%93 W · 86 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…42dfbacked Under | 50c | 26.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 50c | 23.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Under | 50c | 22.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7743…43ecbacked Under | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 51c | 20.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.