MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7918b0a47a3e469734ba278ff14e7e63d01637eed22c6e9f5d7a55c34cc68679
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 9,184$4,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,238.56 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 6,140$3,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,129.36 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…2f33backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 5,495$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,494.79 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 69c | 1,975$1,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.18 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 1,911$1,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,223.04 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 1,723$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.57 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 1,587$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 1,500$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 740.97$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.2 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 473$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.72 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 468$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.52 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 420$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.8 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…2b92backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 377.5$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.6 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 342.15$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.98 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 78c | 339.33$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.35 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 269.84$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.4 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x974d…bd82backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 222.22$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.22 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 139.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 138.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.96 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.83 | 120 | 61.7%74 W · 46 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 92.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6add…6992backed Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 73.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 32c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 23c | 44.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 43.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 42.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd972…8e8bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 38.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 38.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 34.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 34.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb76…28f3backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 24.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 22.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.