Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3645c70212e73850366645928b0b6bae431673fe53a3339d7fa89cffbc728ff0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,742 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 12c | 4,640$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,103.24 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 15c | 3,420$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.26 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0473…6451backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 32c | 2,096$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,422.45 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfa…e524backed Yes | 71c | 1,296$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.73 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 38c | 1,139$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.58 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 52c | 1,055$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.37 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 60c | 976.86$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.44 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 2c | 599.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 14c | 585.47$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.47 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked No | 43c | 577.93$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.93 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 50c | 477$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.17 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 419.98$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.36 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 9c | 410$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 33c | 409.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.6 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 45c | 399$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.14 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 56c | 398.33$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.13 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 68c | 388.67$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.86 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 30c | 300$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.33 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 24c | 229.16$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 8c | 225.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.99 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 34c | 216.87$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 54c | 214.6$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.74 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 57c | 207.17$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.6 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 198.01$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…20c6backed No | 64c | 174.9$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.93 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 62c | 173.36$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.62 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c3…7003backed No | 18c | 172$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.04 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…ca6bbacked No | 53c | 151.87$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.91 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked No | 25c | 142.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.55 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 40c | 136.71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe82…7056backed Yes | 54c | 128.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 15c | 121.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.07 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 20c | 121.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…5455backed No | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…d075backed No | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.61 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…7825backed No | 67c | 103.09$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 106 | 14.2%15 W · 91 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed No | 24c | 102.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.31 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 18c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 18c | 99.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 70c | 98.45$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.58 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 13c | 92.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4430…a0a8backed Yes | 14c | 92.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 61c | 92.06$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…fbf1backed Yes | 58c | 90$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 42c | 89.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.54 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 35c | 88.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…6387backed Yes | 38c | 88.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed No | 18c | 87.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.27 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 55c | 87.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 64c | 83.36$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…2805backed Yes | 56c | 82.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…145abacked Yes | 55c | 77.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 44c | 76.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 44c | 75.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 20c | 73.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 66.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 19c | 64.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 52c | 54.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c79…8e0abacked No | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86ea…8800backed Yes | 23c | 51.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 44c | 49.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 48.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 66c | 48.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 40c | 47.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…1705backed No | 51c | 47.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 45.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a3…ec5dbacked No | 46c | 45.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 67c | 43.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 42c | 43.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f2…03afbacked Yes | 64c | 42.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…aa58backed No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d98…a232backed Yes | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 67c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3e…bd35backed Yes | 38c | 36.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 67c | 35.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4968…cda7backed Yes | 30c | 35.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ddd…3252backed No | 41c | 33.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 47c | 29.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 54c | 29.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…1e89backed Yes | 51c | 29.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355d…902dbacked No | 55c | 27.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 65c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 52c | 25.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 64c | 25.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…8b4abacked No | 66c | 24.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 45c | 23.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c9…b92fbacked Yes | 58c | 23.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeed2…ad97backed No | 54c | 21.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 80 | 72.5%58 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…9811backed Yes | 78c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 76cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 58°F or higher on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.