Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf3d01f1d412c6bcfbb25d01b48ecbce5cf4d553077a24a630fa1277460cfa4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,226 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 24c | 3,821$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,899.7 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 68c | 2,658$1,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.31 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…8043backed No | 1c | 1,985$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…fbf1backed Yes | 44c | 1,971$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.3 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a3…fa3cbacked No | 11c | 1,642$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 24c | 1,568$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.48 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 70c | 1,329$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.35 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 1c | 764.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 58c | 735.9$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.18 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb06…e32bbacked No | 65c | 677.75$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.37 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…d125backed No | 28c | 531$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.52 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 483.02$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 20c | 438.36$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.55 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 14c | 426.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 57c | 409.99$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.16 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 404.21$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 28c | 403.68$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.36 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 24c | 403$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.53 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 19c | 399$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.97 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 74c | 379.01$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.82 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 59c | 353.56$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.57 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 79c | 335.14$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.53 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 21c | 313.97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.38 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.95 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 18c | 273.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.22 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 73c | 263.81$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.63 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 42c | 260.34$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.09 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 21c | 248.7$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.84 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 29c | 245.07$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.63 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 228.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.65 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 67c | 219.3$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.29 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed No | 71c | 213.5$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.93 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe82…7056backed Yes | 58c | 206.95$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.95 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 68c | 205.84$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.79 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 12c | 205$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.65 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 20c | 199.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.94 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 70c | 195.3$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.59 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 34c | 192.25$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.05 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 16c | 186.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 18c | 180.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 174.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 11c | 174.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.19 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 68c | 172.87$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.69 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 76c | 166.65$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.33 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 28c | 147.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.28 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 69c | 145.87$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.53 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 63c | 143.81$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.92 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed Yes | 12c | 141.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.56 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcb…e0f9backed Yes | 40c | 123.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.37 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x279e…5994backed Yes | 24c | 110.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.57 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed No | 9c | 109.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d98…a232backed Yes | 51c | 108.18$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 24c | 107.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa3…5a51backed Yes | 20c | 102.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.48 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 52c | 102.03$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked No | 13c | 100.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b7…675cbacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.15 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 68c | 99.59$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d8…7bbcbacked Yes | 16c | 93.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.39 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed No | 73c | 91.31$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.44 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked No | 74c | 88.18$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.32 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 83.41$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4581…91f9backed No | 66c | 82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.28 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 61c | 77.16$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.02 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 60c | 71.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 62c | 67.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 28c | 66.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 18c | 65.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 65.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed Yes | 18c | 65.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed No | 64c | 65.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…8640backed Yes | 70c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…76f9backed Yes | 28c | 61.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 66c | 60.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…6b9fbacked Yes | 26c | 56.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 79c | 52.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa251…5df0backed Yes | 22c | 52.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 46c | 49.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 77c | 48.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 72c | 48.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee5…4b64backed Yes | 31c | 44.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…69a1backed No | 75c | 43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 27c | 42.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8888…bebabacked No | 76c | 37.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 36c | 35.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 80c | 35.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4932…cb73backed No | 33c | 33.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 73c | 33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…ca6bbacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 63c | 30.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…4861backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 58°F or higher on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.