Mls · resolved market
D.C. United SC vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3664d6cb29b6361ac7ea9f1731e7e0631ca8cd53c5fb602653529a70d29078f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,949 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 4,329$3,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,279.17 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…769cbacked Over | 33c | 1,813$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…d408backed Over | 32c | 1,559$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.91 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 28c | 981.85$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.35 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 20c | 692.14$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.97 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed Under | 64c | 505$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.85 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x994c…2d29backed Over | 25c | 488.26$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ec…bf06backed Under | 75c | 488.26$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 75c | 262.33$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 70c | 207$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 23c | 200.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…bf01backed Under | 63c | 157.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Under | 71c | 108.14$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 36c | 88.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 21c | 76.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 27c | 59.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 35c | 57.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 24c | 54.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 72c | 53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd0…31c9backed Under | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Under | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 66c | 23.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab5f…f76ebacked Under | 62c | 20.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 68c | 18.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…ceb2backed Under | 72c | 17.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- D.C. United SC vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 4.5this page
- D.C. United SC vs. Inter Miami CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- D.C. United SC vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.