MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36c921f139ebeeeca5ed2b6a4866da90255908c295c117802bdd8b067175c636
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 53c | 10,000$5,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,738.77 | 490 | 51%250 W · 240 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 5,246$2,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,416.55 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 55c | 3,267$1,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,808.76 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 1,804$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.52 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 47c | 885.8$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.3 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 48c | 876$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.72 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 47c | 275.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.49 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 49c | 148.15$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.21 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 50c | 139.46$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.73 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 55c | 113.88$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…184cbacked Over | 60c | 101.23$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 284 | 53.9%153 W · 131 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Over | 51c | 56.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 167 | 53.9%90 W · 77 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 42c | 47.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5f…6ee5backed Over | 52c | 37.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 49c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Over | 56c | 30.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 57c | 29.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 549 | 51.2%281 W · 268 L | +29.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 51c | 27.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Under | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 4.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 3.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.