MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a9190dad6324fe8eb3bef181f077fdbcdb95ea134e2da36cfa1274eca53453d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,191
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,191 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Atlanta Braves | 46c | 13,905$6,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,396.11 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 12,000$6,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,520 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked San Francisco Giants | 54c | 4,000$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,840 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Atlanta Braves | 46c | 3,315$1,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,524.74 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 1,371$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.66 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe478…28eabacked Atlanta Braves | 47c | 1,277$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Atlanta Braves | 47c | 1,111$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.17 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 894.55$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.37 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 894.53$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.43 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Atlanta Braves | 46c | 718$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.28 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked San Francisco Giants | 50c | 717.64$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.82 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Atlanta Braves | 50c | 569.41$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.71 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Atlanta Braves | 50c | 500.67$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked San Francisco Giants | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.55 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked San Francisco Giants | 54c | 431.29$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.39 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Atlanta Braves | 47c | 410.79$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 399$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.72 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Atlanta Braves | 48c | 380$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.4 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed San Francisco Giants | 50c | 307$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.5 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked San Francisco Giants | 51c | 260$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.2 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked San Francisco Giants | 53c | 241.65$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.01 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked San Francisco Giants | 50c | 220$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Atlanta Braves | 50c | 220$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Atlanta Braves | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed San Francisco Giants | 51c | 196.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.07 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 188.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.37 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 47c | 179.84$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.52 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0940…3640backed San Francisco Giants | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Atlanta Braves | 50c | 119.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Atlanta Braves | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x920b…fcfbbacked San Francisco Giants | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 166 | 48.8%81 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ad…6254backed Atlanta Braves | 26c | 99.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Atlanta Braves | 51c | 92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked San Francisco Giants | 50c | 87.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.93 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked San Francisco Giants | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Atlanta Braves | 28c | 78.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed San Francisco Giants | 68c | 74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 70.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…28ffbacked Atlanta Braves | 50c | 61.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Atlanta Braves | 40c | 59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Atlanta Braves | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Atlanta Braves | 46c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 114 | 42.1%48 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked San Francisco Giants | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 49.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a48…9e7bbacked San Francisco Giants | 55c | 42.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 188 | 48.9%92 W · 96 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 40.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed San Francisco Giants | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked San Francisco Giants | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed San Francisco Giants | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…a183backed Atlanta Braves | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked San Francisco Giants | 70c | 34.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Atlanta Braves | 46c | 33.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Atlanta Braves | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Atlanta Braves | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa58…63b4backed Atlanta Braves | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdca…5382backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed San Francisco Giants | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Atlanta Braves | 48c | 26.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked San Francisco Giants | 71c | 26.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Atlanta Braves | 46c | 22.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 22.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b89…23fbbacked San Francisco Giants | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked San Francisco Giants | 57c | 18.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 3.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 4.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.