MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45764c32641e252d2d9cf9665d4f877ea0ad39a73ca23ca9ef42ee6269af37e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 55c | 3,702$2,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,036.05 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 70c | 2,615$1,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.71 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 3c | 1,168$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 31c | 640.21$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.76 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Over | 77c | 516.96$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.96 | 133 | 61.7%82 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Over | 57c | 313.73$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.73 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 59c | 206.47$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.65 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x085e…da0bbacked Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…e0c1backed Over | 59c | 84.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +5.9wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 45c | 83.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.7 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 37c | 79.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 53c | 77.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 57c | 75.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Under | 55c | 75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Over | 53c | 62.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b4…c19bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 3.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 4.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.