MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bec67c3adb2ee455335f0a7646ea2afda53ad6c905e9bb98d8556ba6efa783b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 40c | 2,771$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110.6 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 27c | 2,051$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,490.33 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 1,044$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.45 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Atlanta Braves | 48c | 1,020$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.59 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Atlanta Braves | 48c | 323.97$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.46 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…e144backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 280.12$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.32 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fa…455cbacked Atlanta Braves | 62c | 240.49$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.39 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…e0c1backed Atlanta Braves | 76c | 164.47$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +5.9wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 150$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.71 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Atlanta Braves | 46c | 120.8$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.23 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 43.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Atlanta Braves | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 3.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 4.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.