Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Pellegrino (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36eb652d28dcc6f9a161fac0eabacfee8eaa9fdcfb57e3057d0372fd4f8aa359
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pellegrinoof Rublev, Pellegrino
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3663…8950backed Pellegrino | 54c | 7,400$3,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,433.32 | 392 | 43.4%170 W · 222 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Rublev | 47c | 3,065$1,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430.52 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Rublev | 46c | 2,099$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.64 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Rublev | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 264 | 41.7%110 W · 154 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Rublev | 46c | 745.11$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.75 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Rublev | 47c | 600$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.92 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Rublev | 49c | 549.71$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15bc…4a7ebacked Pellegrino | 54c | 427.4$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.47 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc57…1d94backed Rublev | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Rublev | 49c | 391$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.59 | 289 | 33.2%96 W · 193 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Pellegrino | 53c | 300.29$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.42 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Rublev | 9c | 284.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9644…d03bbacked Rublev | 47c | 280.42$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.8 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Rublev | 46c | 229.59$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.36 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Rublev | 49c | 204.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 444 | 42.3%188 W · 256 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Pellegrino | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.27 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Pellegrino | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb213…49e1backed Pellegrino | 51c | 182.22$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.29 | 209 | 53.6%112 W · 97 L | -19.0wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -21%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…f040backed Rublev | 14c | 142.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Rublev | 47c | 139.18$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Pellegrino | 40c | 136.73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.32 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Rublev | 55c | 118.18$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 917 | 54%495 W · 422 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Rublev | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed Pellegrino | 54c | 98.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 176 | 46%81 W · 95 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Rublev | 48c | 81.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Rublev | 49c | 77.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Pellegrino | 22c | 74.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.46 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Rublev | 47c | 71.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…5112backed Rublev | 50c | 70.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Rublev | 52c | 56.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 512 | 36.5%187 W · 325 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Rublev | 49c | 55.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Rublev | 71c | 53.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 335 | 50.1%168 W · 167 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Pellegrino | 32c | 52.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Pellegrino | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,250 | 44.7%559 W · 691 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa302…3ba2backed Rublev | 54c | 45.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +7.4wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f97…6aafbacked Pellegrino | 54c | 29.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd169…8ff6backed Pellegrino | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 284 | 37.3%106 W · 178 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b08…351ebacked Rublev | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Pellegrino (+1.5)this page
- Andrey Rublev vs. Andrea Pellegrino: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Rublev vs. Pellegrino: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Rublev vs. Pellegrino: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Rublev vs PellegrinoRublev won
- Set 2 Winner: Rublev vs PellegrinoPellegrino won
- Swedish Open: Andrey Rublev vs Andrea PellegrinoAndrey Rublev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.