Movies · resolved market
Will "Jackass: Best and Last" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 11m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36ffc705b8e7b31066bac913b10753b1401e43b822783ec442ea0d1541f0cfbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 37c | 1,373$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.39 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 58c | 697.36$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.71 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed No | 80c | 500.41$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.4 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 73c | 399.99$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 74c | 388.12$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.36 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 61c | 250.44$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.75 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe373…4807backed Yes | 75c | 230$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc923…7154backed Yes | 19c | 219.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Yes | 30c | 216.06$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 210.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 77c | 180$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.8 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 57c | 149$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.15 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 17c | 140$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 33c | 112.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…050ebacked No | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 41c | 90.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed No | 27c | 86.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 63c | 71.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 43c | 67.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 56c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 76c | 64.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -7.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes | 74c | 63.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x428f…5d1bbacked Yes | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked Yes | 78c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…97eabacked Yes | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb92a…f51cbacked Yes | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…8363backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38d…7ad9backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…967cbacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 41c | 47.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7738…76a4backed Yes | 25c | 43.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 33.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…8b82backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Jackass: Best and Last" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 11m?this page
- Will "Jackass: Best and Last" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m?No won
- Will "Jackass: Best and Last" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?Yes won
- Will "Jackass: Best and Last" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?No won
- Will "Jackass: Best and Last" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.