MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3701f660c9514fcbf2d236163138aa320cd3061c664263f83237a1a2aa1fd86e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Philadelphia Phillies, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 77c | 1,889$1,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.15 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Philadelphia Phillies | 23c | 1,884$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.29 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 1,305$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.21 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 762.17$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.38 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 468$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.48 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 454.69$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.69 | 205 | 51.7%106 W · 99 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 399.14$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.69 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 187.5$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 137$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 124.12$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 24c | 115.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 55.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 49.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Philadelphia Phillies | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Philadelphia Phillies | 26c | 39.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 34.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 33.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 33.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 32.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x257b…c08bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 30.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8d…4f5cbacked Miami Marlins | 66c | 29.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 28.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Miami Marlins | 77c | 22.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…e223backed Miami Marlins | 78c | 17.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia PhilliesMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.