MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f36ab23b3ce4e5910a714f92682c98d61bc0cb136a0ab457e333e338d3bbe4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 1,905$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.31 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 1,859$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.42 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 1,599$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.18 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 1,255$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.86 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 50c | 945.02$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.86 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 51c | 767.63$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.21 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 665.87$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.96 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 614.96$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.11 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins | 52c | 509.62$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.62 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 336.41$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.94 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…e9dcbacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 333.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.58 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 303.57$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Miami Marlins | 55c | 242.6$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.26 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 211.57$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.09 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 199$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.38 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Miami Marlins | 48c | 185.83$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.63 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Miami Marlins | 53c | 143.31$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.07 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 129.03$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Miami Marlins | 39c | 102.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Miami Marlins | 50c | 85.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Miami Marlins | 46c | 68.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 59.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Miami Marlins | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Miami Marlins | 53c | 37.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 28.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 28.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9646…d98dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 27.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…d0f0backed Miami Marlins | 46c | 27.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x511a…f43fbacked Miami Marlins | 39c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia PhilliesMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.