MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0383576efb19ebbb891892a23198e7c8f88e7e10d0b1e6f63df7f7c2c557f801
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 68c | 1,186$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.31 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 32c | 596.68$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.74 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 32c | 580$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.55 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 494.5$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.82 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Miami Marlins | 32c | 468.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.15 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Philadelphia Phillies | 67c | 461.87$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.87 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 361.53$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.33 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 303.57$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 234.18$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.05 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Miami Marlins | 32c | 149.76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.84 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 112.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 100.97$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.53 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 96.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 70c | 86.95$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 48.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 47.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 37.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Miami Marlins | 51c | 26.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Philadelphia Phillies | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8525…31e8backed Miami Marlins | 80c | 18.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 68c | 16.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia PhilliesMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.