MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xade594a6d342568615082a80d8f1345673d3dd706ae9bbc24644e38c04514f28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 49c | 37,722$18,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,245.05 | 481 | 48.6%234 W · 247 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Under | 0c | 28,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2862…5586backed Under | 51c | 15,000$7,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,650.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 8,392$4,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,269.54 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 4,260$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.55 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Under | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 51c | 1,910$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.33 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 53c | 797$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.44 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 51c | 650.72$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.65 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 34c | 646.98$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.47 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 51c | 491.63$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.73 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 74c | 471.9$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.8 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 51c | 420$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.2 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…e130backed Over | 50c | 386.1$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.05 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 51c | 357.92$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.54 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 65c | 354.79$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.23 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Under | 51c | 347.47$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.21 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 67c | 255$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Over | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Under | 51c | 230$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.3 | 228 | 49.1%112 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 55c | 224.93$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.26 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 51c | 183$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.33 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Over | 48c | 181.54$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 52c | 160$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.12 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…e828backed Under | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 168 | 44%74 W · 94 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 66c | 155.52$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6e…4555backed Under | 51c | 155.41$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.26 | 140 | 46.4%65 W · 75 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Under | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Under | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 68c | 136.57$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked Under | 51c | 114.66$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…23ffbacked Over | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 394 | 40.9%161 W · 233 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 39c | 105.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Over | 50c | 88.68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 199 | 54.3%108 W · 91 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Under | 54c | 81.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Under | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 68c | 76.61$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 27c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 51c | 62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…7de3backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 383 | 42%161 W · 222 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Under | 51c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 51c | 51.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…d63cbacked Under | 43c | 42.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Under | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Over | 48c | 38.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 229 | 48%110 W · 119 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 52c | 34.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 51c | 22.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 64c | 20.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2b…2cd8backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 129 | 57.4%74 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 67c | 17.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked Over | 63c | 17.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 68c | 15.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ace…f3dabacked Over | 73c | 14.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia PhilliesMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.