MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3705f0f935f25662ba130bf6c826f26e62577545a08157ea7eff37a9fd361df2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Baltimore Orioles, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Houston Astros | 65c | 1,974$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.8 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 1,917$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.35 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Houston Astros | 63c | 1,052$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.56 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 542.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…9ea3backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 541.92$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Houston Astros | 63c | 454.03$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.99 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 438.97$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 165 | 43%71 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Houston Astros | 62c | 402.12$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.81 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Houston Astros | 57c | 294.3$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.55 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…8be3backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 290.02$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.21 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 264.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros | 60c | 251$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.4 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 246.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.39 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Houston Astros | 62c | 245.64$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.34 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Houston Astros | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Houston Astros | 61c | 162.93$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.54 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 157.09$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.78 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 155.29$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 128.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d00…7507backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 117.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Houston Astros | 64c | 102.39$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 89.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…4d3ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 87.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 61.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Houston Astros | 62c | 55.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a4…d8b4backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Houston Astros | 61c | 51.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 48.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 48.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…b24abacked Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…9ce7backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 35.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros | 61c | 35.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 57c | 27.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 25.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Houston Astros | 62c | 18.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Houston Astros | 60c | 18.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7198…4213backed Houston Astros | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore OriolesHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.