MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x960f1ac0d64a80e6c87d49b152739ff8c351e45dd40309d6985e0adcb5887983
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93fc…d319backed Under | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…e11cbacked Over | 49c | 3,931$1,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,987.61 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 50c | 2,404$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.18 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 50c | 2,174$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.19 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 46c | 1,702$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.11 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 51c | 1,600$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.99 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc8…2f68backed Under | 54c | 1,030$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.2 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 52c | 768.68$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.64 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 51c | 733.06$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.47 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…43d0backed Over | 47c | 640.79$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.79 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 53c | 523.73$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.58 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 503.05$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.13 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Under | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 453.06$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.06 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Under | 55c | 428$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.4 | 338 | 52.7%178 W · 160 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…8be3backed Under | 54c | 388$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.52 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 46c | 268.9$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.86 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 46c | 259.65$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.21 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 46c | 225$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Over | 45c | 220$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 55c | 190.5$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.78 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 53c | 160.38$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Under | 55c | 158.18$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 117.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 117.06$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.21 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 44c | 113.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.03 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a22…3652backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Over | 49c | 99.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.98 | 229 | 48%110 W · 119 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf375…a60cbacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 55c | 74.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 52c | 73.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Under | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 46c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 55c | 62.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 49c | 60.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…daebbacked Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 303 | 50.8%154 W · 149 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Over | 54c | 48.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x649d…8548backed Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e1…65a4backed Over | 77c | 43.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 39c | 42.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed Under | 54c | 38.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Under | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 77c | 34.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 32.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 48c | 31.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 46c | 25.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 54c | 23.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Over | 45c | 22.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…5487backed Under | 52c | 20.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 50c | 20.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore OriolesHouston Astros won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.