TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Baltimore Orioles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$481,295
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$429,613

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $481,295 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 220 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros59c188,416$110,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77,961.1110,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1de3…a1fabacked Baltimore Orioles23c112,711$25,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,798.443020%6 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Baltimore Orioles57c104,699$59,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,610.4450153.5%268 W · 233 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Baltimore Orioles0c58,696$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.8814724.5%36 W · 111 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Baltimore Orioles0c37,000$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5433515.5%52 W · 283 L-12.7wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38f0…2768backed Baltimore Orioles54c15,678$8,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,40014943.6%65 W · 84 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Baltimore Orioles54c13,572$7,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,315.841,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Houston Astros46c12,110$5,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,539.6577053.9%415 W · 355 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3df…82fabacked Houston Astros51c9,656$4,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,769.1348850.2%245 W · 243 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Baltimore Orioles0c5,480$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.688762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad63…d66fbacked Baltimore Orioles53c4,300$2,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2791070%7 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+30.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8d9…48a6backed Houston Astros46c4,000$1,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1602748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Houston Astros47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,119.9921748.4%105 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5a…87efbacked Baltimore Orioles54c3,982$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1501650%8 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros57c3,656$2,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,583.338,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x19d0…e11cbacked Houston Astros46c3,574$1,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,929.846845.6%31 W · 37 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x066e…ceb2backed Baltimore Orioles38c3,561$1,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,347.7525240.1%101 W · 151 L+0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Baltimore Orioles0c3,559$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5340629.1%118 W · 288 L-2.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros47c3,313$1,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,756.095,40050.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L+17.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Houston Astros47c2,894$1,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,539.942,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x93fc…d319backed Baltimore Orioles2c2,682$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Houston Astros45c2,500$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,374.9975049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21d4…84bdbacked Baltimore Orioles53c2,435$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,290.413956.4%22 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Houston Astros46c2,222$1,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,199.881,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Houston Astros46c2,012$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.6327451.8%142 W · 132 L+1.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x177f…956cbacked Houston Astros47c2,004$942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,062.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Houston Astros46c2,000$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0808151.9%42 W · 39 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed Baltimore Orioles1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1014134%48 W · 93 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles19c1,897$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.7912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf209…15b9backed Houston Astros46c1,780$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.25455.6%30 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Baltimore Orioles33c1,648$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.2439640.9%162 W · 234 L-25.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-31.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Houston Astros45c1,572$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.0173748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Houston Astros47c1,542$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.052,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Baltimore Orioles6c1,471$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.9485135.8%305 W · 546 L-23.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc854…165bbacked Houston Astros46c1,436$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2bf…0b30backed Houston Astros46c1,336$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.26862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+26.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c55…97d4backed Baltimore Orioles54c1,233$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66613655.1%75 W · 61 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Baltimore Orioles2c1,232$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.055852.1%12 W · 573 L-1.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c1e…06bdbacked Houston Astros46c1,161$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.12100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+119.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x695d…60d5backed Houston Astros48c1,100$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5723167.7%21 W · 10 L+5.6wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+33.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros73c1,070$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.986,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa969…1a84backed Houston Astros46c1,050$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56717452.9%92 W · 82 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Houston Astros47c1,019$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.411,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa11f…1252backed Houston Astros61c1,018$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.9518651.1%95 W · 91 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9079…b19bbacked Houston Astros61c1,014$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.2744556.9%253 W · 192 L+27.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Houston Astros47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5302,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f01…0d90backed Houston Astros46c1,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5403250%16 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc31…971fbacked Baltimore Orioles54c1,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54032850.3%165 W · 163 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x329c…2485backed Houston Astros46c999.99$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5409262%57 W · 35 L+8.9wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+21.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Baltimore Orioles53c999.99$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53060350.1%302 W · 301 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Baltimore Orioles8c993.31$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.461,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles12c981.2$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.648,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Houston Astros61c939$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.2177752.1%405 W · 372 L+36.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e60…536bbacked Baltimore Orioles17c895.54$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14914535.9%52 W · 93 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1da3…2f94backed Baltimore Orioles58c862.07$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5009354.8%51 W · 42 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b3…3a80backed Baltimore Orioles55c810.91$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4461662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Baltimore Orioles3c779.38$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.982,20350.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L+29.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Houston Astros47c767.02$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.5257744.7%258 W · 319 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcbf…d37fbacked Baltimore Orioles53c746.2$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.689153.8%49 W · 42 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Houston Astros38c700$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43470735.1%248 W · 459 L-31.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Baltimore Orioles41c638.31$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.8875244%331 W · 421 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Houston Astros47c610$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.316845.8%77 W · 91 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed Houston Astros46c600$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3241,40243.1%604 W · 798 L+4.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Houston Astros45c599.13$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.121,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Baltimore Orioles53c585.12$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.111,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Baltimore Orioles24c569.93$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.1950337.2%187 W · 316 L-42.3wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros46c550.56$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.39,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf009…43d0backed Baltimore Orioles55c545.45$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30011051.8%57 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c32…325bbacked Baltimore Orioles55c500$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2751233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-34.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb267…d710backed Baltimore Orioles13c474.76$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.991942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9869…1a45backed Baltimore Orioles54c444.44$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+70.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Houston Astros47c418.05$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.554,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Houston Astros51c400$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19894555.2%522 W · 423 L+31.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca1b…c69cbacked Baltimore Orioles4c386.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.562733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Houston Astros46c380$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.21,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe558…dcd2backed Baltimore Orioles3c370.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3610547.6%50 W · 55 L+9.9wins+0.09per pick38cpaid-2.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Baltimore Orioles54c370.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20094034.3%322 W · 618 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd8…eecabacked Baltimore Orioles54c356.33$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19422248.6%108 W · 114 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Houston Astros66c353.69$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.0841836.4%152 W · 266 L-31.6wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Houston Astros49c348.94$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.9425751.8%133 W · 124 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Houston Astros46c344.55$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.0631046.5%144 W · 166 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x982e…add6backed Baltimore Orioles11c338.04$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3833228.3%94 W · 238 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba14…b792backed Houston Astros46c325$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.544643.3%193 W · 253 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Houston Astros47c300$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.51,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc23…8283backed Baltimore Orioles55c272.73$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15043153.6%231 W · 200 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x783b…dc4cbacked Houston Astros70c270.95$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.2960941.4%252 W · 357 L-22.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Houston Astros45c267.73$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.2533852.7%178 W · 160 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc0d…8bcabacked Baltimore Orioles8c262.5$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2119348.7%94 W · 99 L+15.6wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+16%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1961…c461backed Baltimore Orioles55c260$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1431030%3 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick54cpaid-38.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc313…e128backed Houston Astros47c244.68$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.6837941.2%156 W · 223 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Houston Astros71c236.08$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.5412037.5%45 W · 75 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f96…1e41backed Houston Astros46c232.64$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d57…18ddbacked Baltimore Orioles53c226.42$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12011947.1%56 W · 63 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b1a…d790backed Baltimore Orioles53c221.52$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.419945.5%45 W · 54 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2a5…11c0backed Baltimore Orioles54c220.22$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.92425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd73…08ecbacked Houston Astros48c219.29$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.03560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd041…357abacked Houston Astros46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.393250%16 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9c…a907backed Houston Astros46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.39785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.35per pick50cpaid+73.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc0a2…3c41backed Houston Astros46c216.3$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.815857%90 W · 68 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Baltimore Orioles13c216.16$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.161,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.