MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77e3a7a3c6f233aa698b9f4e0225af00ecb7b339cf9f6c3d2a3c960416dc44f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 1,196$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.29 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac83…239cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 74c | 1,100$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ed…5dc7backed Houston Astros | 26c | 1,094$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 671.27$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.53 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Houston Astros | 36c | 620$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.8 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 405$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.75 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros | 31c | 307$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.11 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 35c | 298$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.7 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 283.3$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.9 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…8be3backed Houston Astros | 36c | 228$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.2 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc4…5a94backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 188$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.2 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 36c | 155.74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.84 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Houston Astros | 36c | 147.3$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.27 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Houston Astros | 36c | 119.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.79 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Houston Astros | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Houston Astros | 37c | 92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Houston Astros | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Houston Astros | 36c | 46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Houston Astros | 35c | 44.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 16.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore OriolesHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.