Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x371ca125b1dc9e195ea6cc0d1e7f94e925edb575e647f0755a3fb1b9f805f9dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 31c | 1,166$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.31 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 298.43$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.58 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 35c | 288.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 269.77$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 223$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.13 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 198.18$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24cf…7e5cbacked Yes | 27c | 110.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 33c | 110.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50dc…16b2backed Yes | 15c | 106.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 99.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 87.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 87.33$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 71c | 70.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 35c | 59.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 55.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 33c | 54.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 50.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 48.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 48.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 68c | 47.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadae…5ef5backed Yes | 24c | 42.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 35c | 29.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 65c | 21.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 21.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 18.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 18.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 67c | 16.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…1fe2backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C or higher on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.