Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77ea76696e35628073548f44f4026723dd5710c2f0208eeff094d11dd3843930
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 729.6$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.27 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 36c | 370.12$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.1 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 211.56$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.06 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 192.59$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.92 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed No | 9c | 154.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 96.66$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.87 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 66c | 90.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed No | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbce6…e428backed Yes | 32c | 88.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 70c | 88.2$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 58c | 76.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d76…e8b9backed Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 66.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 57.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 75c | 53.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 61c | 51.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 30c | 48.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 37c | 46.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 64c | 46.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 23c | 45.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 35c | 45.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…154ebacked Yes | 35c | 43.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 43.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 49c | 42.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…c148backed Yes | 33c | 36.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 34.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…6c9abacked Yes | 35c | 30.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 34c | 30.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 68c | 29.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 75c | 26.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 70c | 26.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 70c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 71c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 18.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8785…fe21backed No | 70c | 17.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C or higher on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.