Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd00d813edf292d5a5ad22d54bb9d57a92ab6e0433f609e9953326666fa64152
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 1,214$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 19c | 701.45$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.26 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 22c | 341$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.02 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed No | 75c | 333.83$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.83 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 269.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 45c | 221.89$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 13c | 204.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 198.18$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 175.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…154ebacked Yes | 8c | 140.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 58c | 131.83$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.81 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 20c | 97.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 73c | 93.31$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.26 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 88.29$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 20c | 83.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd7…2c2cbacked Yes | 79c | 76.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…c148backed Yes | 19c | 71.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Yes | 68c | 71.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 70$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 22c | 67.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 36c | 65.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…85d5backed Yes | 58c | 58.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 41c | 52.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…e292backed Yes | 70c | 51.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe44…0995backed Yes | 67c | 51.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Yes | 40c | 50.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…6c9abacked Yes | 22c | 47.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 80c | 47.64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 52c | 46.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes | 44c | 45.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 56c | 45.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2660…afa2backed No | 78c | 32.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 69cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 58c | 21.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ab…00e9backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C or higher on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.