Dota2 · resolved market
PlayTime to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x372426fc8d7069f3969011f476a86d8d280c4810cb52e2a0fa52ece499abcfa5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f95…15d7backed Yes | 1c | 12,017$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.28 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f07…53d1backed Yes | 15c | 654.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 217 | 39.2%85 W · 132 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Yes | 14c | 519.15$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.68 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Yes | 34c | 326.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.14 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed No | 75c | 222.93$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.45 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5867…2e20backed Yes | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 253 | 39.1%99 W · 154 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…9062backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 69c | 142.43$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 14c | 138.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked No | 66c | 124$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 9c | 121.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da6…9ac4backed Yes | 18c | 120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 34c | 118.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 251 | 43.4%109 W · 142 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed No | 73c | 101.61$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…1691backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 19c | 93.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 66c | 84.45$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9224…b43bbacked Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 169 | 42.6%72 W · 97 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Yes | 23c | 79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -7.0wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Yes | 21c | 72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 78c | 70.08$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x472b…5d5fbacked No | 66c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2004…cb6fbacked Yes | 49c | 50.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Yes | 26c | 42.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Yes | 36c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0550…c7efbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…2ea0backed Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed2f…c694backed No | 71c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb453…bed9backed No | 66c | 22.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…f40dbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 447 | 71.1%318 W · 129 L | +27.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked No | 78c | 16.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PlayTime to win 2-0?this page
- Nigma Galaxy to win 2-0?Yes won
- PlayTime vs Nigma Galaxy: Draw (1-1)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.