TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Nigma Galaxy to win 2-0?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$46,705
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$54,242

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,705 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked No59c7,599$4,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,483.3925549%125 W · 130 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Yes41c7,317$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,317.071,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed No60c2,523$1,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,519.011,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked No63c2,250$1,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,417.4656542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked No63c2,195$1,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,382.571,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Yes49c1,884$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$956.0212155.4%67 W · 54 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+134.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked No52c1,822$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.3985851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed No59c1,500$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.9964744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbd9…de31backed Yes37c1,345$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.3814258.5%83 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41f4…ee16backed Yes35c1,266$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.3538547.5%183 W · 202 L-0.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Yes41c1,240$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.341,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8992…ed1fbacked Yes44c1,218$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.986050%30 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed No51c1,152$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.3622644.7%101 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes37c1,000$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63017948.6%87 W · 92 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed No61c903$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.8734051.5%175 W · 165 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked No63c887.97$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.428146.9%38 W · 43 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cb4…da4fbacked Yes50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4007566.7%50 W · 25 L+9.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+13.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked No59c789.25$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.361,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked No62c786.07$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.411733.3%39 W · 78 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No62c758.38$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.4519643.9%86 W · 110 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No20c752.1$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.8312552.8%66 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc827…ff0fbacked No3c592.58$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.78100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2fc…b1b4backed Yes40c573.5$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.3315353.6%82 W · 71 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa0b…c13fbacked Yes35c571.08$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.082951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes40c550$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33012642.1%53 W · 73 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No13c542.05$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.79256.5%52 W · 40 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Yes63c524.44$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.3825150.2%126 W · 125 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Yes23c510.08$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.811,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked Yes36c500$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32016243.2%70 W · 92 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Yes45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27596245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked No49c485$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.658248.8%40 W · 42 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x81a9…df08backed Yes44c454.55$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.555137.3%19 W · 32 L-6.8wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-30.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes73c419.29$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.9925143.4%109 W · 142 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked Yes41c406.68$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.9461449.5%304 W · 310 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked No17c402.72$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6924034.2%82 W · 158 L-17.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-37.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa371…eaa5backed Yes35c348.57$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.5714643.8%64 W · 82 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd752…7b4fbacked Yes44c337.93$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.9335461.3%217 W · 137 L+0.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf651…53a1backed Yes67c322.22$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd331…733cbacked Yes37c302.98$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.0516550.3%83 W · 82 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes37c300$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18967555%371 W · 304 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes42c250$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.128048.8%39 W · 41 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fcc…ee29backed Yes37c237.54$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.6517451.7%90 W · 84 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87a2…2250backed Yes48c235.6$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.354360.5%26 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed No59c223.89$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.0933445.2%151 W · 183 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes19c221.16$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.1638142%160 W · 221 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb55e…735bbacked Yes41c215.02$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.863129%9 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa618…20bbbacked Yes45c214.8$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.142846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+27.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbb0…bd65backed No58c206.69$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.99933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-44%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x15d1…ccfebacked Yes49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10254659.7%326 W · 220 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed Yes40c200$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12092561.2%566 W · 359 L+53.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e3d…6aa1backed No59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1182766.7%18 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+21.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e43…7f01backed Yes41c194.08$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.08666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+49.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…8e7ebacked No27c185.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9933854.1%183 W · 155 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe733…f6c9backed Yes52c172.46$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.468662.8%54 W · 32 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba06…8024backed Yes63c164.07$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.7115950.3%80 W · 79 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed No63c158.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10057735%202 W · 375 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb209…b744backed No52c154.79$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.397733.8%26 W · 51 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-35.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2267…3355backed No70c154.31$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bd2…b613backed No67c150.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004577.8%35 W · 10 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick69cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a48…e3a8backed Yes41c145.78$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.9325266.3%167 W · 85 L+20.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+15.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeef9…8731backed No60c145$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8725956.8%147 W · 112 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No55c143.81$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.5271342.5%303 W · 410 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f4…81a6backed No14c142.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20508%4 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-46.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3452…1ba0backed Yes54c141.16$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.118351.9%95 W · 88 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Yes43c140$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.831126%81 W · 230 L-17.5wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-37.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e9f…3988backed No33c136.49$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5919460.3%117 W · 77 L+0.2wins0.00per pick60cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee59…e42abacked No22c136.35$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3028846.9%135 W · 153 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No28c136$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9816553.3%88 W · 77 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x75f3…0e78backed Yes44c131.82$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.8241248.8%201 W · 211 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2405…e055backed No64c122$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.089440.4%38 W · 56 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-27.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb5b…62c7backed Yes41c121.95$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.957166.2%47 W · 24 L+7.5wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+18.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xde1d…dfaabacked Yes41c121.95$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.952259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfff1…12e4backed No12c118.66$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2412937.2%48 W · 81 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ee…878ebacked Yes44c113.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.649552.6%50 W · 45 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Yes44c110$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.11,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No12c107.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7379341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes58c106.71$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.718851.1%45 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x115d…1691backed Yes44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5614244.4%63 W · 79 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes34c99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.0966545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc9d…de16backed Yes37c97.3$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.38965.2%58 W · 31 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd166…e432backed Yes48c94.35$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.473655.6%20 W · 16 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+31.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7560…1ee1backed No12c91.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121133.6%71 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No64c90.67$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.039340.9%38 W · 55 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff11…c6f3backed Yes31c90$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+63.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked No14c89.83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8119737.1%73 W · 124 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-33.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf76e…3650backed Yes47c89.77$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.776660.6%40 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4451…8fd8backed Yes45c88.89$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.898751.7%45 W · 42 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Yes22c86.3$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.7114336.4%52 W · 91 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x260a…eb0fbacked Yes41c86.02$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.7515368%104 W · 49 L+17.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+23.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x680a…0a15backed Yes48c85.8$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.523375.8%25 W · 8 L+4.6wins+0.14per pick62cpaid+22%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c590backed Yes61c83.66$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.398223.2%19 W · 63 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-31.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8812…c41abacked No62c81.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.293852.6%20 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2458…bd24backed Yes37c81.08$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.084553.3%24 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x419b…6ea1backed Yes37c81.08$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.0822453.1%119 W · 105 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3296…c186backed Yes40c80.92$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9216552.1%86 W · 79 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ffb…f7f0backed No60c80.36$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.651550.9%262 W · 253 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10ad…827cbacked Yes37c80$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.331143.4%135 W · 176 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed No65c78.4$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9181345.1%367 W · 446 L-26.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd30…9a01backed No27c75.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2916054.4%87 W · 73 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a1e…5bb5backed No51c74.89$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.194153.7%22 W · 19 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.