Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3751a4bf8914b01518df9b85775cc0122ab3a9be9b7ebc327fdffd33c7c9ecfd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 27c | 494.25$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.78 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 37c | 454.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.65 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 279.01$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 59c | 255.82$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.82 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 190.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 13c | 185.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 22c | 184.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 8c | 176.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 170.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 148.61$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 31c | 127.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 15c | 124.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 123.57$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 74c | 115.46$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 17c | 112.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 95.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 70c | 81.86$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 81.78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 69c | 79.47$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 70c | 71.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 25c | 67.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8976…4ea7backed Yes | 22c | 66.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 31c | 61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked Yes | 32c | 59.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 46c | 59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 74c | 58.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 74c | 57.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…b301backed Yes | 26c | 54.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 32c | 53.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 33c | 50.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb930…435fbacked Yes | 28c | 50.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 32c | 50.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked Yes | 32c | 49.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 72c | 49.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 31c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 45.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 32c | 45.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 44.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 31c | 44.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 29c | 43.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 26c | 40.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 29c | 38.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed Yes | 35c | 37.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 72c | 36.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 35.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 69c | 33.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 35c | 30.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 70c | 29.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 68c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 24.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 70c | 18.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 70c | 18.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 72c | 15.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or below on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.