Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8d2963e3b847bfbf9edb16dc2608f29e376f47a8f0c90a221774e2e444b0020
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 1c | 4,829$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 0c | 2,392$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 2c | 809.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 17c | 732.25$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.27 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 5c | 429.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 350.85$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 310.73$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 39c | 307.98$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.99 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 9c | 267.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 49c | 216.66$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.8 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 28c | 205.83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 61c | 192.87$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.65 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 187.66$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 78c | 152.93$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 151.16$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 146.58$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.34 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 50c | 145.49$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.29 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 141$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.41 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 9c | 133.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 128.94$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 24c | 122.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 42c | 115.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 59c | 106$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed No | 11c | 105.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 58c | 101.72$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 61c | 98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 93.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 63c | 79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 56c | 75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 74.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 40c | 74.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…b301backed Yes | 49c | 74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 73.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 42c | 72.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 39c | 68.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb930…435fbacked Yes | 40c | 55.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7da0…ca1ebacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 20c | 52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 51.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 30c | 50.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…3bd7backed Yes | 73c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 60c | 49.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 61c | 49.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 48c | 48.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 46.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 44c | 45.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 67c | 42.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…d85bbacked Yes | 53c | 41.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81a6…070fbacked Yes | 52c | 40.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 53c | 39.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 37c | 38.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 36c | 37.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 39c | 37.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b4…6bb9backed No | 67c | 37.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 36.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 39c | 36.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 37c | 35.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 47c | 34.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 64c | 33.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked Yes | 40c | 33.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 53c | 33.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x837c…d774backed Yes | 67c | 32.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 36c | 31.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 77c | 30.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 42c | 27.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 47c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 48c | 21.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a9…dcf5backed No | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 64c | 15.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 67c | 15.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…7b38backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +59%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or below on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.