Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e0ebee81b0eaa0ced025bd5f07703242de583722c97e565eae41c2b1d48e14e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 749.93$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.59 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 14c | 700$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 23c | 495.88$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.01 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 13c | 333.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 8c | 321.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da0…ca1ebacked Yes | 11c | 274.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 20c | 255.68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 14c | 250.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 12c | 220$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 77c | 199.98$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 13c | 198.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 173.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed Yes | 13c | 170.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 8c | 164.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed Yes | 13c | 130$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 12c | 95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 16c | 92.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 14c | 92.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 12c | 91.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 86$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 25c | 80.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 18c | 74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 20c | 73.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 16c | 72.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb930…435fbacked Yes | 17c | 69.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 23c | 64.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7689…8317backed Yes | 22c | 50.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 26c | 47.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 79c | 46.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 78c | 37.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 79c | 36.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 79c | 34.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 74c | 30.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked No | 79c | 26.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked No | 78c | 25.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 92 | 72.8%67 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 78c | 23.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 68c | 23.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 19.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 80c | 18.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 73c | 16.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or below on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.