MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x375bac2c46b302b0dbecb6bd6122a33d28c88e7e012be1eadbf02e21eb49ee44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a8c…ba13backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 21,280$12,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,222.02 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Seattle Mariners | 53c | 20,643$10,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,702.22 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 17,400$8,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,178 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 16,877$7,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,800.87 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0317…6289backed Seattle Mariners | 52c | 9,950$5,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,776 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Toronto Blue Jays | 49c | 7,719$3,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,792.9 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 4,073$2,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,401.56 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 2,826$1,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433.45 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 2,414$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.02 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Seattle Mariners | 54c | 2,376$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092.93 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 1,091$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.41 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Seattle Mariners | 53c | 1,040$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.83 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Seattle Mariners | 54c | 1,037$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.87 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Seattle Mariners | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Seattle Mariners | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1475…e632backed Toronto Blue Jays | 68c | 905.06$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Seattle Mariners | 35c | 877.22$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.87 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 823.18$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.04 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 757.58$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Seattle Mariners | 54c | 460$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4074…7d83backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 326$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.48 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Seattle Mariners | 63c | 319.05$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.05 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 7c | 294.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 283.19$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.86 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Seattle Mariners | 20c | 280.28$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.22 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 231$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.22 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172b…e2cdbacked Seattle Mariners | 52c | 182.96$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.98 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Seattle Mariners | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Seattle Mariners | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Seattle Mariners | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c88…5685backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 89.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Seattle Mariners | 52c | 73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Seattle Mariners | 55c | 58.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed Seattle Mariners | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 48.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 48.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…2b2dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…a19bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…9b0abacked Seattle Mariners | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4816…ee65backed Toronto Blue Jays | 69c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.