Ligue 1 · resolved market
Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. FC Lorient: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x377c490d51aa05c0b58fa85159e14c4f688d6b57861746d149592e6f3c30ceff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 17c | 1,499$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.83 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c34…1d5bbacked Over | 10c | 1,499$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.58 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 4c | 999$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 16c | 363.63$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.18 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 14c | 307.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 17c | 262.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8488…588cbacked Over | 17c | 132$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 24c | 107$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +7.5wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 15c | 90.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…f9b8backed Over | 29c | 83.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 27c | 77.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Over | 16c | 76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. FC Lorient: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Stade Rennais FC 1901 (-1.5)FC Lorient won
- Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. FC Lorient: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. FC Lorient: O/U 1.5Over won
- Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. FC Lorient: O/U 2.5Under won
- Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. FC Lorient: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.