Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
San Francisco Dons vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x377f75341107a013e22328e780f31b53affd4db41e61d12f4357a123ef26dd04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Donsof San Francisco Dons, Mississippi State Bulldogs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e3a…4033backed Mississippi State Bulldogs | 60c | 8,400$5,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,015.89 | 116 | 62.1%72 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed San Francisco Dons | 40c | 4,696$1,878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,817.38 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked San Francisco Dons | 63c | 2,949$1,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.27 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Francisco Dons | 48c | 2,816$1,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,460.75 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Dons | 68c | 2,129$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.34 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Mississippi State Bulldogs | 46c | 2,102$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.34 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Mississippi State Bulldogs | 27c | 1,927$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.12 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked San Francisco Dons | 61c | 1,136$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.27 | 231 | 58.9%136 W · 95 L | +23.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed San Francisco Dons | 48c | 825.7$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.66 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Mississippi State Bulldogs | 28c | 791.07$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5be…46cebacked Mississippi State Bulldogs | 28c | 627.52$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Mississippi State Bulldogs | 30c | 458$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.38 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Mississippi State Bulldogs | 44c | 321.01$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.28 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Mississippi State Bulldogs | 52c | 244$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.66 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed San Francisco Dons | 70c | 208$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Mississippi State Bulldogs | 31c | 167.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed San Francisco Dons | 70c | 143.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed San Francisco Dons | 60c | 107.08$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…fa88backed Mississippi State Bulldogs | 43c | 106.65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Mississippi State Bulldogs | 23c | 100.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae9…74acbacked San Francisco Dons | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…eab4backed San Francisco Dons | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked San Francisco Dons | 56c | 65.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf37c…3c74backed Mississippi State Bulldogs | 54c | 52.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6da8…d660backed San Francisco Dons | 40c | 30.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed San Francisco Dons | 75c | 20.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed San Francisco Dons | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b90…1d17backed San Francisco Dons | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Dons vs. Mississippi State Bulldogsthis page
- San Francisco Dons vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs: O/U 147.5Under won
- Spread: Mississippi State Bulldogs (-5.5)San Francisco Dons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.