MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x378c2d8477783d579250d52d2d4c65e164a45052503006cd25d05983b4b4eb1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 29c | 4,359$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.19 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 71c | 3,759$2,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090.21 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 70c | 1,393$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.73 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 30c | 1,024$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.2 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Cincinnati Reds | 71c | 372.63$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.06 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed St. Louis Cardinals | 31c | 354.87$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Cincinnati Reds | 71c | 187.96$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.51 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 29c | 140$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…9a94backed St. Louis Cardinals | 29c | 98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 23c | 55.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 31c | 44.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cincinnati Reds | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Cincinnati Reds | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis CardinalsCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.