MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3033d38c833ffc0cbd47efd3b7cb54597ced0a53fcfa73769c5e485e3460a9b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x684b…8409backed St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 16,655$6,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,495.29 | 260 | 54.2%141 W · 119 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 11,944$7,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,657.87 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 9,647$3,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,955.09 | 260 | 56.5%147 W · 113 L | +13.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 5,387$3,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,198.86 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…68cabacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 5,000$2,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 1,212$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.2 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 1,056$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.9 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 1,024$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.48 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 1,017$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.71 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 890$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.9 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 632$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.24 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 547.79$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.12 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 543.75$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 421.48$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.17 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 390$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 330.93$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.85 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 33c | 307$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.77 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 300.39$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.6 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 293.5$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.56 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 260$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 252.5$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 191.08$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.43 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 177.92$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.39 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 26c | 163.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 140$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 123.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 118.74$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.68 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 26c | 109.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed St. Louis Cardinals | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 80.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc919…d1ddbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 65.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 60.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 59.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 53.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…9a94backed St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 47.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 45.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 32.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 175 | 50.3%88 W · 87 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 26.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea7…078bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 20.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 17.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis CardinalsCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.