MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7554777e8000588b20922e6e0f0896611fdc9e13cee3d3d874011728bf0407f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $212,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $246,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $212,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 64c | 102,323$65,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,836.24 | 141 | 56.7%80 W · 61 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 67c | 79,238$53,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,148.52 | 884 | 46.3%409 W · 475 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 36c | 76,372$27,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,500.28 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 36c | 1,542$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.13 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 42c | 1,208$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.46 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Under | 36c | 1,055$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.15 | 269 | 62.1%167 W · 102 L | +44.2wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 64c | 966.61$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.98 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a26…1589backed Over | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 340.6$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.59 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a1…e38bbacked Under | 64c | 178.13$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…7a58backed Under | 35c | 134.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.11 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed Under | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +12.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…fa96backed Over | 39c | 58.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Under | 48c | 54.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…b7d4backed Under | 67c | 44.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 48c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Under | 69c | 29.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…f703backed Under | 65c | 25.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…b6ffbacked Under | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +9.4wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 51c | 23.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0882…dceabacked Under | 48c | 20.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 61c | 18.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabaf…8651backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis CardinalsCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.