TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$304,023
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$304,083

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $304,023 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Under53c262,625$137,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124,743.651,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over41c140,690$57,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57,860.1910,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e94…5ba1backed Over55c109,090$60,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,999.546949%230 W · 239 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Under46c17,543$8,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,473.1486548.7%421 W · 444 L-8.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over55c12,984$7,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,099.711,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over54c8,888$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,799.5244749.2%220 W · 227 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e64…336dbacked Over54c5,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70044945.4%204 W · 245 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over34c3,409$1,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.042,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b10…acabbacked Under54c3,257$1,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,498.228446.4%39 W · 45 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under54c2,995$1,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,377.74,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over55c2,723$1,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,493.386,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over43c2,254$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.48,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Over41c1,616$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.621,72550.1%864 W · 861 L-4.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under45c1,024$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.22,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over36c794.98$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.1512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Under54c768.57$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.5487750.4%442 W · 435 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under54c747.7$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.941,00058.8%588 W · 412 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dde…30b1backed Over47c725.26$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34443459%256 W · 178 L+19.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over55c614$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.992,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7677…37c0backed Over55c600$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33032850%164 W · 164 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under45c469.89$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.448,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under45c460.4$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.2241346.7%193 W · 220 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Over54c390$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.61,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3f2…22e2backed Over55c365.03$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under45c334.09$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.595,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Over54c299.97$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.9958652.7%309 W · 277 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Under54c274.12$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.11,20558.8%708 W · 497 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad99…dbabbacked Under46c272.39$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.213048.5%63 W · 67 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under76c264.76$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.7613461.9%83 W · 51 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under44c250.02$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.013,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a8d…7688backed Under54c236.56$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.1624149%118 W · 123 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5dc8…e209backed Over52c229.42$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.9946152.1%240 W · 221 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Under55c227.77$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.772,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over46c195.43$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.94,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc22e…eab8backed Over53c178.93$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5448851.6%252 W · 236 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over39c177$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.031,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Over55c176$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.81,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under45c170.38$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.713,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x212b…0ba5backed Over53c151.07$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9953655.8%299 W · 237 L+22.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Over55c140$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.31,17249.1%575 W · 597 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd27d…fa96backed Over41c127.29$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.983638.9%14 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-27.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x256b…97bbbacked Over55c127.27$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7039149.1%192 W · 199 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over55c122.31$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9755758%323 W · 234 L+24.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37bd…ed2abacked Under54c113$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.9813153.4%70 W · 61 L+0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed Over54c111.33$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.1273653%390 W · 346 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ba4…6de0backed Over55c109.08$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0320945%94 W · 115 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under72c105.61$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.335,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Under45c101.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.831,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Over25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2513345.9%61 W · 72 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4318…9a94backed Under64c96.61$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.079443.6%41 W · 53 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40f5…55b9backed Over55c90.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504546.7%21 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Over55c90$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.577050.5%389 W · 381 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28f7…404dbacked Under52c89.15$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.1547646.2%220 W · 256 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecdb…c4c7backed Over55c88.88$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8829141.6%121 W · 170 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under70c85.69$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.738,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Under59c84.06$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.061,19550%597 W · 598 L+5.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under44c80.46$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.0631844%140 W · 178 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bb3…b370backed Under46c76.15$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1219555.9%109 W · 86 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x369e…d016backed Under66c76.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0411560.9%70 W · 45 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabaf…8651backed Under66c75.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.911675%12 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+36.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over40c74.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.994,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d9a…dbe1backed Over40c72.5$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910056%56 W · 44 L+12.8wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+34.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Under47c70$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.112037.5%45 W · 75 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x468e…4271backed Under72c69.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.441566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad9e…53c2backed Over56c68.39$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.33063.3%19 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick71cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x747f…f2d7backed Over55c68.09$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4517047.1%80 W · 90 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf655…7f1abacked Under44c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.641236.7%151 W · 261 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over25c57.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.021,81449.1%891 W · 923 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Under44c50.34$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1940341.4%167 W · 236 L-20.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc72…2888backed Under79c49.29$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3512924.8%32 W · 97 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70cf…40ecbacked Under46c43.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4812053.3%64 W · 56 L-0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under46c42.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.92,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c22…7b22backed Under46c42.2$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.797050%35 W · 35 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x250f…4fc6backed Over25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1013025.4%33 W · 97 L-17.3wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-35.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Under54c39$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.942,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked Over55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,19753.9%645 W · 552 L+42.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cdf…58e1backed Over55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2046255.8%258 W · 204 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e4b…0a04backed Under49c34$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3417550.3%88 W · 87 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Over55c32$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.61,24556.9%708 W · 537 L+31.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x847e…cc57backed Under62c31$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7813554.8%74 W · 61 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x205d…2ad2backed Over56c22.73$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.737753.2%41 W · 36 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe748…bc49backed Over54c19.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.666946.4%32 W · 37 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.