TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$382,267
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$382,372

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $382,267 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bff…fc26backed Over46c215,509$99,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99,347.5244446.8%208 W · 236 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Under54c128,924$69,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,785.7588446.3%409 W · 475 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+37.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Under55c111,111$61,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,999.951,41449.5%700 W · 714 L-4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e94…5ba1backed Over45c92,666$41,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,699.6948148.6%234 W · 247 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under55c41,807$22,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,89111,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under57c15,243$8,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,629.374,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6b1…78fdbacked Over44c10,619$4,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,672.511838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb272…5030backed Under54c10,000$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,60036246.1%167 W · 195 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe55a…ecf7backed Under53c7,784$4,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,620.233946.2%18 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under55c7,725$4,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,490.264,51548.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L-46.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7822…9348backed Over43c5,310$2,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,264.69812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick43cpaid-71.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Under55c5,009$2,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,259.961,88453%998 W · 886 L+16.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Under55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,25050152.5%263 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bf1…b5afbacked Over43c4,717$2,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,028.296036.7%22 W · 38 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under53c3,500$1,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,644.9875248.8%367 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0844…f46abacked Over44c3,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32016948.5%82 W · 87 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over46c2,709$1,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,244.716,12355.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L+346.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x885f…8ed9backed Over45c2,274$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.6734353.4%183 W · 160 L+18.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over45c2,222$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.944749.2%220 W · 227 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under55c2,100$1,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.286,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Over46c2,082$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.622,31151%1,179 W · 1,132 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed Over46c1,830$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841.5729147.1%137 W · 154 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under54c1,441$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.843,50951%1,789 W · 1,720 L+53.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under53c1,382$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.948,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under56c1,284$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.148,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Over47c1,221$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.8773650.7%373 W · 363 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7677…37c0backed Over45c1,200$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53432850%164 W · 164 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under54c1,162$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.45,47150.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L+21.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe478…28eabacked Under57c1,053$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.636858.8%40 W · 28 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cec…d241backed Over48c1,052$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008256.1%46 W · 36 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10e0…c736backed Under55c1,030$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.7117951.4%92 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c3c…e8c9backed Under55c909.09$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.0935643.5%155 W · 201 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under61c825.58$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.193,04148%1,461 W · 1,580 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Over47c745$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.1527449.3%135 W · 139 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Under54c740.74$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.7464752.4%339 W · 308 L+28.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3453…8524backed Over48c592.79$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.9439051.5%201 W · 189 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f1…7aefbacked Over49c585.6$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.9439953.6%214 W · 185 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Under55c575.75$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.531,63549.3%806 W · 829 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Under54c555.55$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.5557053.3%304 W · 266 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Under54c548$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.531,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Over47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2351,84550.7%936 W · 909 L-4.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Over47c500$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.541,21953.9%657 W · 562 L+32.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Over44c478$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.3271253.4%380 W · 332 L+12.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe75c…bb4ebacked Under56c457.14$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.142176.2%16 W · 5 L+4.8wins+0.23per pick53cpaid+42.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over32c414.16$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.412,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Over46c396$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.161,84849.6%917 W · 931 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x912f…b25bbacked Under52c384$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.329762.9%61 W · 36 L+12.2wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+36.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Under52c382.01$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.6112037.5%45 W · 75 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Under54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.3787850.5%443 W · 435 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Over44c360.89$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.7928154.4%153 W · 128 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad99…dbabbacked Under55c336.36$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.7313048.5%63 W · 67 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Under54c317.34$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.9145545.7%208 W · 247 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x648f…bb7bbacked Under54c308.39$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.862263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+24.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Over45c300$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13524059.2%142 W · 98 L+18.3wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Over47c265.57$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1259450%47 W · 47 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over47c234.06$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.013,84142.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb88a…f6adbacked Over45c229$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0529153.6%156 W · 135 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5633…59bcbacked Over45c229$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0528452.5%149 W · 135 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Over48c209.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.21,75350.8%890 W · 863 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Under52c197$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.563141.9%13 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-27.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under55c177.89$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.932,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dde…30b1backed Under63c165.18$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2245358.7%266 W · 187 L+20.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Over46c150$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6999947.5%475 W · 524 L-3.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over21c147$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.768,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Over46c144.02$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6196553%511 W · 454 L+18.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff19…3ebebacked Over47c132.55$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2441048.3%198 W · 212 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Over27c131.98$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.534,18750.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L+94.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Under54c124.96$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.231,17249.1%575 W · 597 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa384…3c9fbacked Over44c113.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5028147.7%134 W · 147 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a8d…7688backed Under56c112.12$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.3324149%118 W · 123 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x747f…f2d7backed Over46c110.13$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6617047.1%80 W · 90 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5016…ada1backed Over46c110$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3336650.8%186 W · 180 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b13…2f02backed Over45c110$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.52060%12 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+25.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Over19c108.65$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6413345.9%61 W · 72 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Under55c103.1$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.921,27857%728 W · 550 L+33.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4193…4853backed Over47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4784651.5%436 W · 410 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Over48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4855146.8%258 W · 293 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a64…683ebacked Over46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468045%36 W · 44 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4318…9a94backed Over25c97.56$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.959443.6%41 W · 53 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Over47c94.17$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2626642.1%112 W · 154 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ba4…6de0backed Over45c92.65$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.920945%94 W · 115 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over46c92.45$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.512,99547.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L+12.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Under55c90.29$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8534846.8%163 W · 185 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c60…01febacked Over47c85.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408056.3%45 W · 35 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2185…b40cbacked Over46c82$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7226255.7%146 W · 116 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Over47c79.79$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.567653.1%359 W · 317 L+29.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Over47c77$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1926751.7%138 W · 129 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68e1…b2fabacked Over22c77$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9914752.4%77 W · 70 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bb3…b370backed Under56c75.42$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1819756.3%111 W · 86 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0612…559abacked Over45c70$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.561250.5%309 W · 303 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over28c64$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.921,85544%817 W · 1,038 L-31.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Over33c63.82$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9473355.3%405 W · 328 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa917…4e8dbacked Over44c59$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9628647.2%135 W · 151 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d28…87b5backed Under72c58.21$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.216564.6%42 W · 23 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked Over47c56$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3224749%121 W · 126 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Over44c55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.21,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a62…5247backed Over48c54$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6714047.9%67 W · 73 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7f…bb6dbacked Over45c52$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.414851.4%76 W · 72 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bb3…ed90backed Over44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229752.6%51 W · 46 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a48…e3a8backed Over47c48$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.564654.3%25 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.