MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x379ad202cf4c6217731acaa36c927870ef5adf71fe265009968729fa3c83d3a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Chicago White Sox, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Chicago White Sox | 29c | 757.79$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.16 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox | 44c | 606.67$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.56 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 577.57$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.17 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 70c | 284.45$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.37 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 251.77$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.91 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 163.93$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.01 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Washington Nationals | 66c | 131.27$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe96b…eb54backed Chicago White Sox | 36c | 96.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…5a3ebacked Chicago White Sox | 26c | 73.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Washington Nationals | 73c | 64.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Chicago White Sox | 35c | 51.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Chicago White Sox | 48c | 50.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Chicago White Sox | 37c | 48.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Chicago White Sox | 37c | 48.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 43.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…d506backed Chicago White Sox | 48c | 30.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Washington Nationals | 63c | 28.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Washington Nationals | 63c | 25.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Washington Nationals | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 202 | 58.4%118 W · 84 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.