MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21cd69240fbf8ccf3f55d3697382fd67ca4f71d64d31dd93c0fc09ea988b23bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 51c | 1,693$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.94 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Under | 53c | 971.8$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.75 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 47c | 850$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.5 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Over | 3c | 690.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 136 | 5.9%8 W · 128 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed Over | 48c | 644.72$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.47 | 169 | 47.9%81 W · 88 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 53c | 586.87$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.29 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 52c | 544.84$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.52 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under | 51c | 531.69$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.53 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4d…e246backed Under | 52c | 362.26$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.88 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +7.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 49c | 356.35$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.79 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 52c | 320.09$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.64 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 313.87$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.46 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Over | 4c | 304.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 83 | 4.8%4 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 299.98$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Over | 49c | 255.57$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…4004backed Over | 49c | 197.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 128 | 52.3%67 W · 61 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 39c | 197.06$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.11 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Under | 53c | 183.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 32c | 168.43$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 65c | 158.94$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc0…7faabacked Over | 49c | 157.94$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.91 | 213 | 47.9%102 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 157.29$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 49c | 149.3$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.69 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 47c | 147.69$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.41 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 19c | 125.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Over | 26c | 122.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 41c | 114.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.63 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 41c | 114.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.63 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 51c | 108$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Over | 32c | 99.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 49c | 99.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 42c | 83.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Over | 29c | 74.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -10.3wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 32c | 68.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 48c | 63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Over | 48c | 59.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…d506backed Over | 25c | 57.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 61c | 41.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Over | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 102 | 15.7%16 W · 86 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Over | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Over | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2798…a9c7backed Over | 48c | 39.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 68c | 39.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 41c | 35.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 53c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 361 | 57.9%209 W · 152 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 45c | 31.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Over | 48c | 22.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 229 | 48%110 W · 119 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.