MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd450319596405f545c90e2581753dc2413c962d15f507dfe86cfa7b1c7b5b946
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Washington Nationals, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Washington Nationals | 36c | 3,846$1,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384.7 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 1,100$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 962.78$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.6 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Chicago White Sox | 64c | 960$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.6 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 598.01$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.29 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 544.87$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.99 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Chicago White Sox | 61c | 510.52$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.02 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 484.9$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.6 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 28c | 424.73$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.84 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 400$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Washington Nationals | 20c | 289.72$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 56c | 251.85$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.48 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 188.67$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.01 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Washington Nationals | 44c | 182.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.23 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Chicago White Sox | 68c | 144.18$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.14 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 120.84$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Chicago White Sox | 64c | 93.89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Washington Nationals | 36c | 66.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Washington Nationals | 54c | 59.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Chicago White Sox | 47c | 53.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 52.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Washington Nationals | 42c | 52.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Washington Nationals | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 48.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Washington Nationals | 36c | 47.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | -13.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Washington Nationals | 39c | 45.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c7…4e5bbacked Washington Nationals | 36c | 39.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Washington Nationals | 41c | 35.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 35.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Chicago White Sox | 48c | 30.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 30.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 28.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Washington Nationals | 49c | 23.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Chicago White Sox | 67c | 21.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Chicago White Sox | 71c | 21.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Chicago White Sox | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 398 | 50.3%200 W · 198 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…e91cbacked Chicago White Sox | 72c | 14.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.