CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs SemperFi Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x379bc33db8b73101fd1bcf9d1aad0ab304e8b89d30a7e755d94a01124304dfb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, SemperFi Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd14…2267backed SemperFi Esports | 2c | 15,439$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.07 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed SemperFi Esports | 4c | 9,860$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.79 | 552 | 36.2%200 W · 352 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc531…47e5backed SemperFi Esports | 7c | 3,396$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…5d10backed SemperFi Esports | 2c | 2,919$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked SemperFi Esports | 4c | 2,700$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 97 | 39.2%38 W · 59 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked SemperFi Esports | 1c | 2,630$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed SemperFi Esports | 1c | 2,484$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…34debacked SemperFi Esports | 5c | 1,932$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.16 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…38d3backed SemperFi Esports | 1c | 1,732$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 242 | 33.9%82 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked SemperFi Esports | 2c | 1,350$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 660 | 34.1%225 W · 435 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked SemperFi Esports | 2c | 1,206$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 1,611 | 45.4%731 W · 880 L | +30.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c56…3e41backed SemperFi Esports | 5c | 1,157$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed SemperFi Esports | 2c | 1,156$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…9795backed SemperFi Esports | 1c | 786.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked SemperFi Esports | 4c | 777$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed SemperFi Esports | 5c | 680$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed SemperFi Esports | 2c | 663.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 193 | 42%81 W · 112 L | -12.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed SemperFi Esports | 4c | 616.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c6…4cf3backed SemperFi Esports | 5c | 580$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed SemperFi Esports | 6c | 563.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 872 | 44.8%391 W · 481 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8120…54c9backed SemperFi Esports | 5c | 560$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed SemperFi Esports | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 786 | 39.4%310 W · 476 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70c…41d5backed SemperFi Esports | 5c | 499.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 342 | 35.4%121 W · 221 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked SemperFi Esports | 3c | 462.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed SemperFi Esports | 3c | 415.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +4.8wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed SemperFi Esports | 4c | 400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 328 | 45.1%148 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed SemperFi Esports | 5c | 400$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 783 | 48.4%379 W · 404 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed SemperFi Esports | 3c | 399.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 317 | 31.9%101 W · 216 L | -13.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed SemperFi Esports | 5c | 368.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 1,618 | 46.8%758 W · 860 L | -28.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d3…376cbacked SemperFi Esports | 3c | 350.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed SemperFi Esports | 5c | 318.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 165 | 27.9%46 W · 119 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9a…a06bbacked SemperFi Esports | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 696 | 24%167 W · 529 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbe…03c5backed SemperFi Esports | 5c | 210$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +68%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52ab…ecebbacked SemperFi Esports | 7c | 139.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs SemperFi Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1this page
- Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs SemperFi Esports - Map 1 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs SemperFi Esports - Map 2 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs SemperFi Esports (+1.5)PARIVISION won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.