NHL · resolved market
NHL Playoffs: Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Total Games O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37b22a4a8af1c9b0a92a4c10d7b7d074d9059ab1ce19a8629e4c63f386cfc8ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 5.5of Over 5.5, Under 5.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x040d…1a5ebacked Under 5.5 | 73c | 1,167$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.72 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over 5.5 | 24c | 609$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.11 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73c0…e8d1backed Under 5.5 | 55c | 421.58$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.75 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca2…03cfbacked Over 5.5 | 69c | 207.93$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.39 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…c629backed Over 5.5 | 57c | 201.96$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.12 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd97…0ec5backed Over 5.5 | 67c | 192.25$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.81 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…3c74backed Over 5.5 | 57c | 162.19$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.69 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…a0bfbacked Under 5.5 | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over 5.5 | 59c | 51.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c11…9bc6backed Under 5.5 | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Under 5.5 | 38c | 45.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7980…feadbacked Under 5.5 | 45c | 44.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c5…e14bbacked Under 5.5 | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Under 5.5 | 76c | 35.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Over 5.5 | 55c | 34.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23a6…3330backed Over 5.5 | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3816…dfa7backed Under 5.5 | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a00…5968backed Over 5.5 | 67c | 15.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Under 5.5 | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.