Premier League · resolved market
Liverpool vs. Aston Villa: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37b5133bd153a04ef2c1df7816b7871b40356a25e4de9d3930fcbfb54261ef74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 36c | 4,942$1,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,797.44 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 2,876$1,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.47 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0353…c2ffbacked Under | 63c | 2,012$1,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.8 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x341e…9b67backed Under | 73c | 1,340$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Over | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 414 | 37.9%157 W · 257 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Under | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 37c | 685.6$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.87 | 239 | 26.4%63 W · 176 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 59c | 443.97$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.03 | 215 | 48.8%105 W · 110 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x810c…51cabacked Under | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -4.6wins | -0.23per pick | 68cpaid | -34%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Over | 31c | 323.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 290 | 44.8%130 W · 160 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…0596backed Under | 63c | 318.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.37 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Under | 59c | 299.72$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.89 | 136 | 56.6%77 W · 59 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a9…1f13backed Over | 41c | 253.66$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 46cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0521…cc4abacked Over | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefbd…8086backed Under | 60c | 137.9$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 175 | 44%77 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 40c | 137$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 395 | 61.3%242 W · 153 L | -21.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 64c | 128.71$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…d280backed Over | 40c | 104.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 100 | 31%31 W · 69 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -12%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…06b0backed Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9701…3917backed Over | 44c | 97.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2078…2d66backed Over | 44c | 92.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -7.0wins | -0.25per pick | 46cpaid | -60%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 240 | 44.2%106 W · 134 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…0695backed Under | 62c | 80.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ed…6d3cbacked Under | 61c | 73.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea3…9642backed Under | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 58c | 64.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac25…147abacked Over | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb2…996cbacked Over | 44c | 57.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7082backed Under | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 142 | 52.8%75 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa2…2da1backed Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd612…0bc1backed Under | 74c | 47.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 172 | 54.1%93 W · 79 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfd…c435backed Over | 40c | 43.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Under | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +13.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…3762backed Under | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -7.9wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Over | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed Over | 40c | 38.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61be…5e3cbacked Over | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Under | 58c | 36.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…6df5backed Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 223 | 56.5%126 W · 97 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x825a…ece6backed Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…376cbacked Under | 69c | 24.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 56c | 20.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…8ae4backed Under | 66c | 20.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa856…3964backed Under | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +29%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Liverpool vs. Aston Villa: O/U 3.5this page
- Liverpool vs. Aston Villa: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Spread: Liverpool (-1.5)Liverpool won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.