Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Liverpool (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55c2ffc740070a7662e197d0d3bb0efbf607b63c8dc468b4fc2aba7f15c1ad61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Liverpoolof Liverpool, Aston Villa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Liverpool | 35c | 3,000$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -49%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Aston Villa | 65c | 2,379$1,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540.62 | 6,047 | 45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L | -21.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…45ccbacked Aston Villa | 67c | 1,793$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 109 | 62.4%68 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffab…a290backed Aston Villa | 67c | 1,133$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Liverpool | 33c | 1,051$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.02 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Liverpool | 33c | 747.18$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.52 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…df80backed Liverpool | 36c | 722.22$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.22 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Liverpool | 38c | 394.79$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.77 | 198 | 26.3%52 W · 146 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Liverpool | 43c | 300$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.2 | 344 | 28.8%99 W · 245 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…8795backed Aston Villa | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Liverpool | 33c | 298.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…ffd0backed Aston Villa | 67c | 218.96$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.91 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked Aston Villa | 66c | 150.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21b5…d164backed Aston Villa | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…d280backed Liverpool | 35c | 141.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.32 | 100 | 31%31 W · 69 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -12%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Liverpool | 35c | 120$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 189 | 28%53 W · 136 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Liverpool | 33c | 110.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.37 | 215 | 48.8%105 W · 110 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Aston Villa | 64c | 110.32$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x569f…f8a4backed Liverpool | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Liverpool | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…7fe3backed Aston Villa | 68c | 89.76$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.04 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Liverpool | 44c | 87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.91 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x787c…7ae2backed Liverpool | 36c | 77.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…8ae4backed Liverpool | 36c | 73.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9126…1896backed Aston Villa | 66c | 61.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Liverpool | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked Liverpool | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa2…c110backed Liverpool | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Liverpool | 34c | 53.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c9…66b0backed Liverpool | 38c | 52.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e48…6fd3backed Liverpool | 50c | 51.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b32…90bdbacked Aston Villa | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23bd…2ea6backed Aston Villa | 60c | 49.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dde…2c06backed Aston Villa | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Liverpool | 35c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 240 | 44.2%106 W · 134 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58de…b7a5backed Liverpool | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c46…2d02backed Aston Villa | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0647…da66backed Aston Villa | 66c | 28.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…75a1backed Aston Villa | 68c | 20.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Liverpool (-1.5)this page
- Liverpool vs. Aston Villa: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Liverpool vs. Aston Villa: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.