WNBA · resolved market
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3813301e7c4496e5e8dfb0ee67f3e65dfebd783367079ceffb5aa99a3bec0223
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PortlandFireof PortlandFire, Seattle Storm
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Seattle Storm | 47c | 5,899$2,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,768.41 | 143 | 53.8%77 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7286…d5d0backed PortlandFire | 59c | 5,127$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,127.26 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Seattle Storm | 40c | 3,069$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.38 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked PortlandFire | 53c | 2,632$1,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.97 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed PortlandFire | 45c | 1,457$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.1 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Seattle Storm | 55c | 1,457$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.1 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked PortlandFire | 53c | 1,041$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.06 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Storm | 55c | 1,025$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.31 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked PortlandFire | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed PortlandFire | 53c | 907.94$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.73 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Seattle Storm | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked PortlandFire | 55c | 182.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.49 | 119 | 41.2%49 W · 70 L | -12.0wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb05e…599abacked Seattle Storm | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed PortlandFire | 53c | 150.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.9 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Seattle Storm | 46c | 122.47$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…4f53backed Seattle Storm | 51c | 121.57$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed PortlandFire | 56c | 103.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Seattle Storm | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Seattle Storm | 47c | 80.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Seattle Storm | 47c | 80.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Seattle Storm | 55c | 72.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed PortlandFire | 28c | 67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Seattle Storm | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked PortlandFire | 53c | 59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked PortlandFire | 53c | 52.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Seattle Storm | 45c | 52.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed PortlandFire | 45c | 51.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked PortlandFire | 41c | 34.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Seattle Storm | 47c | 32.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed PortlandFire | 45c | 31.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Seattle Storm | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Seattle Storm | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked PortlandFire | 54c | 21.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Seattle Storm | 59c | 20.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 192 | 45.8%88 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5)this page
- Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFirePortlandFire won
- Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire: O/U 161.5Over won
- Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire: O/U 162.5Over won
- Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire: O/U 163.5Over won
- Spread: PortlandFire (-3.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: PortlandFire (-4.5)PortlandFire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.